Research

Seeing the
future.

Can historical simulations accurately predict private market portfolio outcomes? Our backtesting report puts the Historical-Simulation model head to head with the industry-standard Takahashi-Alexander model. Fill out the form and your copy of the 21-page PDF is ready on the next page.
01
Two models, head to head
How our Historical-Simulation framework and the longstanding Takahashi-Alexander model each forecast private market cash flows.
02
An extensive backtest
Forecast accuracy measured across portfolio contributions, distributions, and net asset values over multiple time horizons.
03
Where the difference shows
The Historical-Simulation model forecasts distributions and NAVs with significantly lower error over longer horizons.
Questions about the research?

Get the report.

Fields marked * are required.

We’ll only use your details to share our research. Privacy policy

Why Bella

Why choose Bella Analytics?

Private capital specialization

We focus exclusively on the needs of private capital investors, delivering analytics purpose-built for practitioner decision-making.

Proven analytical rigor

Our solutions are grounded in rigorous quantitative methods, ensuring accuracy, transparency, and defensibility in every result.

Clear visualization and insight

Complex data becomes clear, actionable visuals, making it easier for teams and stakeholders to align on decisions.